A survival genome-wide association study to identify variants associated with COVID-19 risk of death

Background/Objectives: SARS-CoV-2 infection clinical manifestations hugely vary among patients, ranging from no symptoms, to life-threatening conditions. This variability is also due to host genetics: COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative identified six loci associated with COVID-19 severity in a previous case-control genome-wide association study. A different approach to investigate the genetics of COVID-19 severity is looking for variants associated with mortality, e.g. by analyzing the association between genotypes and time-to-event data. Method(s): Here we perform a case-only genome-wide survival analysis, of 1,777 COVID-19 patients from the GEN-COVID cohort, 60 days after infection/hospitalization. Case-only studies has the advantage of eliminating selection biases and confounding related to control subjects. Patients were genotyped using Illumina Infinium Global Screening Arrays. PLINK software was used for data quality check and principal component analysis. GeneAbel R package was used for survival analysis and age, sex and the first four principal components were used as covariates in the Cox proportional hazard model. Result(s): We found four variants associated with COVID-19 patient survival at a nominal P < 1.0 x 10-6. Their minor alleles were associated with a higher mortality risk (i.e. hazard ratios (HR)>1). In detail, we observed: HR=1.03 for rs28416079 on chromosome 19 (P=1.34 x 10-7), HR=1.15 for rs72815354 on chromosome 10 (P=1.66 x 10-7), HR=2.12 for rs2785631 on chromosome 1 (P=5.14 x 10-7), and HR=2.27 for rs2785631 on chromosome 5 (P=6.65 x 10-7). Conclusion(s): The present results suggest that germline variants are COVID-19 prognostic factors. Replication in the remaining HGI COVID-19 patient cohort (EGAS00001005304) is ongoing at the time of submission.

Italian ancestral HLA haplotype predisposing to severe COVID-19 by low spike and high IFNalpha binding affinity

Background/Objectives: Validated association between COVID-19 and the most obvious candidate genes, e.g. HLA, is still missing. A weak association with class I HLA-C*04:01 was found for infection in Sardinians and for severity in another mixed population. Auto-antibodies to interferon type I have been implicated in the severity of COVID-19 in two studies. Method(s): The binding affinity between HLA molecules and SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and IFNalpha subunits was evaluated in silico. The presence of antibodies against one or more of the 12 IFNalpha subunits was evaluated in 160 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The 10 most frequent haplotypes in the Italian population were tested in 1.997 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients (hospitalized versus not hospitalized). Result(s): The presence of auto-antibodies against at least one IFNalpha subunit was detected in 26% of patients. The haplotype A*24:02-B*35:02-C*04:01-DRB1*11:04-DQB1*03:01 was found to predispose to severity (p = 0.0018;p = 0.07 after Bonferroni correction) in patients <50 years. The haplotype includes alleles able to bind spike with low affinity (i.e. C*04:01 and DRB1*11:04) and IFNalpha with high affinity (i.e. DRB1*11:04). Conclusion(s): One of the 10 most frequent ancestral haplotype of the Italian population predisposes to severity likely reducing both innate immunity through IFNalpha auto-antibodies induction and adaptive immunity through weaker spike protein presentation.

Gain and loss of function CFTR alleles modulate COVID-19 clinical outcome

Background/Objectives: We previously demonstrated that carrying a single pathogenic CFTR allele increases the risk for COVID-19 severity and mortality rate. We now aim to clarify the role of several uncharacterized rare alleles, including complex (cis) alleles, and in trans combinations. Method(s): LASSO logistic regression was used for the association of sets of variants, stratified by MAF, with severity. Immortalized cystic fibrosis bronchial epithelial cell lines and Fischer Rat Thyroid cells were transfected by plasmid carrying specific CFTR mutations. YFP-based assays were used to measure CFTR activity. Result(s): Here we functionally demonstrate that the rare (MAF=0.007) complex G576V/R668C allelemitigates the disease by a gain of function mechanism. Several novel CFTR ultra-rare (MAF <0.001) alleles were proved to have a reduced function;they are associated with disease severity either alone (single or complex alleles) or with another hypomorphic allele in the second chromosome, with a global reduction of CFTR activity between 40 to 72%. Conclusion(s): CFTR is a bidirectional modulator of COVID-19 outcome. At-risk subjects do not have open cystic fibrosis before viral infection and therefore are not easily recognisable in the general population unless a genetic analysis is performed. As the CFTR activity is partially retained, CFTR potentiator drugs could be an option as add-on therapy for at-risk patients.

Polymorphism of HLA and KIR affects severity of COVID-19 by shaping innate and adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2

Extreme polymorphism of HLA and Killer-cell Immunoglobulin-like Receptors (KIR) differentiates immune responses across individuals. Additional to Tcell receptor interactions, subsets of HLA class I act as ligands for inhibitory and activating KIR, allowing natural killer (NK) cells to detect and kill infected cells. We investigated the impact of HLA and KIR polymorphism on the severity of COVID-19. High resolution HLA class I and II and KIR genotypes were determined from 403 non-hospitalized and 1,575 hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 infected patients from Italy collected in 2020. We observed that the activating KIR2DS4*001 allotype is associated with severe disease (OR = 3.74, 95% CI 1.75-9.29, pc = 0.003). KIR2DS4*001 in presence of its specific HLA ligands and inhibitory KIR3DL2*002 in absence its HLA ligand are also enriched in severe COVID-19 patients (OR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.09-2.50, p = 0.019), suggesting this combination acts in tandem to increase risk of developing severe COVID-19. We also observed the HLA class II allotype, HLA-DPB1*13:01 protects SARS-CoV-2 infected patients from hospitalization (OR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.33-0.74, pc = 0.019). These association analyses were replicated using logistic regression with sex and age as covariates. Autoantibodies against IFN-alpha associated with COVID-19 severity were detected in 26% of hospitalized patients. HLA-C*08:02 was more frequent in patients with IFN-alpha autoantibodies than those without, and KIR3DL1*01502 was only present in patients lacking IFN- alpha antibodies. We intend to expand this analysis in Greek and Spanish COVID-19 cohorts. These findings show that KIR and HLA polymorphism may play important roles in determining the clinical outcome following SARS-CoV-2 infection, by influencing the course both of innate and adaptive immunity.

Protective Role of a TMPRSS2 Variant on Severe COVID-19 Outcome in Young Males and Elderly Women

The protease encoded by the TMPRSS2 gene facilitates viral infections and has been implicated in the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2. We analyzed the TMPRSS2 sequence and correlated the protein variants with the clinical features of a cohort of 1177 patients affected by COVID-19 in Italy. Nine relatively common variants (allele frequency > 0.01) and six missense variants which may affect the protease activity according to PolyPhen-2 in HumVar-trained mode were identified. Among them, p.V197M (p.Val197Met) (rs12329760) emerges as a common variant that has a deleterious effect on the protease and a protective effect on the patients. Its role appears particularly relevant in two subgroups of patients-young males and elderly women-and among those affected by co-morbidities, where the variant frequency is higher among individuals who were mildly affected by the disease and did not need hospitalization or oxygen therapy than among those more severely affected, who required oxygen therapy, ventilation or intubation. This study provides useful information for the identification of patients at risk of developing a severe form of COVID-19, and encourages the usage of drugs affecting the expression of TMPRSS2 or inhibiting protein activity.